The riots that convulsed Iran in September of 2022 and fizzled sometime in winter are regarded as one of the Islamic Republic’s greatest challenges.

A masterly crafted book penned by Mehdi Mohammadi stands as one of the initial and most succinct endeavors to unravel the sequence of events leading to the tragic violence that claimed the lives of over 200 individuals, including a minimum of 60 security personnel.

Though Western media liked to describe the period of unrest as a “new movement for Iranian women”, those versed in the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ know what Iranians went through in the 2022 year-end was nothing short of a large-scale conflagration, meticulously shepherded by Israel. 

While the true meaning of ‘hybrid’ is still largely contested, the model generally refers to the combined use of terrorism, criminal activities, sanctions, propaganda, and diplomacy to menace an enemy. 

The reason behind the U.S. and its allies' antagonism towards Iran is quite simple: according to several analysts, the country has turned into the biggest power in West Asia and is changing equations in the region. Its unyielding alliance with powerful forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, and Yemen obscures American efforts to advance its own agenda. Iran seems to have played its best hand in the past 4 decades and for that, Washington views it as a long-term problem that should be reined in. 

Mohammadi in his book, is not coy about describing the aspects of the West’s biggest attempt at subverting Iran. He depicts the ineffable period of history in a concise manner and uses a streak of first-hand testimonies from intelligence officers to vividly explicate the unrest. 

Mohammadi does not contend that the passing of Mahsa Amini was a premeditated event, yet he believes and argues that the responses of Israel and the West were meticulously calculated far before her demise. The swift arrival of Western-linked journalists at Amini's hospital bedside shortly after her collapse, the gathering of a leftist crowd outside the hospital, and the hasty and incendiary reaction from official Israeli accounts on social media all point to a comprehensive strategy aimed at deepening fissures and violence within Iranian society. 

"Iran must be constrained, or it will constrain everything," was how Michael D'Andrea, the most senior intelligence officer at the CIA's Iran Mission Center, used to characterize the threats posed by Iran to the United States in discussions with his team. D'Andrea viewed Iran as equally perilous as Russia and China. He had determined that rather than seeking to eradicate Iran entirely, Washington should concentrate on undermining Iran's most potent and critical strategic assets, namely Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Iran's nuclear program, and the country's regional alliances.

Iran’s Leader

Ayatollah Khamenei is the West’s most enduring rival in the world. Regarded as an ideological, astute, and steadfast leader, he has woven a vast network of resistance throughout West Asia. Despite relentless propaganda aimed at tarnishing his image, Ayatollah Khamenei's battle against Western hegemonic dominance remains unwavering and has gained momentum over the years. Former CIA Director David Petraeus has openly acknowledged Washington's repeated failures to penetrate Ayatollah Khamenei's inner circle. The U.S. acknowledges that external pressures are unlikely to compel the leader to yield, suggesting that only Iran's internal dynamics could sway his decisions.

That’s why the West and Israel have been orchestrating a character assassination campaign against the Leader at least in the last two decades. Their strategy hinges on sowing doubt about the legitimacy of Ayatollah Khamenei's decisions, with the aim of leveraging internal factions, particularly the reformists, to exert pressure on the Leader to reverse course on critical matters. The signing of the JCPOA is viewed through this lens. It is believed that Ayatollah Khamenei, albeit personally opposed, acquiesced to the agreement due to then-President Hassan Rouhani's success in convincing a majority of Iranians that Iran's best interests lay in forging a pact with the West, even at the expense of curtailing vital capabilities such as nuclear technology.

Nuclear capabilities

Nine countries in the world possess nuclear weapons. There are some other states, like Japan and Germany, which are considered to be paranuclear meaning they can build a nuclear bomb but have so far decided not to. 

The West knows for a fact that Iran is not after nuclear weapons. According to Mohammad, its concern lies with the West Asian country’s vast knowledge of nuclear science which could enable it to reach and maintain a nuclear threshold state status under extreme circumstances. According to Western perspectives, Iran attaining this threshold would also complicate Washington and its allies’ struggle against resistance groups in the region. 

Following the unrest which gripped Iran after the 2009 presidential elections, the U.S. decided to use the help of pro-Western reformists to steer Iran’s Leader toward an agreement that would significantly restrict Iran’s nuclear capabilities. To give reformists more room to argue, the West saddled Iran with years of crippling sanctions. 

Washington and its allies essentially utilize two pressure tactics: fomenting unrest and supporting pro-Western reformists. It was revealed that during talks to revive the JCPOA in 2022, the U.S. halted talks and told Iran that it would stop supporting the unrest only if the country imposes further restrictions on its other capabilities, specifically targeting Iran's missile and drone programs.

regional influence

Iran's regional strategies serve as the core reason for all Western animosities directed toward the country. Iran's obstruction of a prospective terrorist state (Islamic State or Daesh) in its vicinity, its emergence as the ultimate winner during the developments of the Arab Spring, the amplifying military potency and credibility of resistance groups, and the containment of Israel are all perceived as lasting setbacks to Western interests.

Washington's primary approach to curbing Iran's regional influence has been to incite discord between the public and resistance factions. To achieve this, the West has endeavored to foment unrest and orchestrate a parallel propaganda campaign in Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. 

To be continued…